The news had spread and most markets are now in “correction mode,” as higher interest rates, a lack of affordability and economic uncertainty keep buyers out of the market. Home sales have fallen 13 percent since last spring, almost wiping out gains from the rebound after the Bank of Canada paused rates early this year.
Canadians may see the real estate market return closer to normal in 2024. The aggregate1 price of a home in Canada is set to increase 5.5 percent year over year to $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the median price of a single-family detached property and condominium projected to increase 6.0 percent and 5.0 to $879,164 and $616,140, respectively.
Home prices are expected to rise next year in all major markets across the country, with GTA forecast to see the greatest gains. Throughout the second half of 2023, while prices have been declining in other cities, the GTA real estate market has bucked the trend continuing on an upward price trajectory.
For the last year, many Canadians have been fixated on the idea of interest rates needing to come down significantly before they can afford to enter or re-enter the housing market. Acceptance that a mortgage rate of four to five percent is the new normal should untether pent-up demand as first-time buyers, flush with savings collected during the extended down market in housing, regain the confidence to go home shopping. And, with the return of first-timer demand.
Supply shortage and affordability challenges
Canada continues to struggle with a chronic housing supply shortage. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the country needs about 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030 to restore affordability, with the greatest need concentrated in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia.3 At the current pace of housing construction and considering the rate of new household formation and immigration projections, inventory will remain out of step with projected demand for years to come.
Pre-Construction Firesales challenges
In our 2023 fall market predictions report, we expected a slowdown in the pre-construction industry and this will hold going into 2024. According to the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, 37% of builders canceled projects in Q3 of 2023 and 65% said interest rates are causing them to build fewer units. This lack of builder confidence is reducing housing starts and in the mid to long-term, this will exacerbate the undersupply issue in Canada. This lack of new housing being completed is fuelling low inventory levels meaning there are now fewer newly constructed homes available to buyers. With fewer houses to choose from, buyers are more likely to find themselves in bidding wars with other buyers driving up prices.
Housing Market Price Predictions For 2025
As with predictions for 2024, higher immigration and continued economic recovery will fuel demand into 2025 though there are still concerns about affordability and lack of supply.
It’s important to note that the foreign buyers ban that currently bans residential property purchases by those who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents is set to end in 2025. This could drive market competition, fuelling real estate price increases if the lack of housing supply persists into 2025.