As we approach the end of 2023, the Toronto housing market has been a hot topic of discussion. With a dynamic landscape that continuously evolves, the market has seen significant changes in response to various economic and policy factors.
Current Market Conditions
As of September 2023, the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 3% year-over-year to $1,119,428[1]. Despite being in a deep buyer’s market territory for the first time in 14 years, Toronto home prices continued to increase on both a monthly and annual basis[1].
The average price of a detached home in the GTA was $1,440,786 in September 2023, a 5.2% increase year-over-year. Semi-detached homes prices increased 5% year-over-year to an average price of $1,094,074. Freehold townhouses saw prices up 2% monthly to $1,043,076, up 5% year-over-year. However, condos were the only property type to see an annual decrease in home prices, falling 3% year-over-year to $707,065[1].
The GTA housing market plunged into a deep buyer’s market in September 2023, the first time that the GTA has been in deep buyer’s market territory since January 2009. This is caused by a strong surge of new listings flooding the market as sluggish sales numbers fall behind[1].
Regional Comparison
City of Toronto home prices are surging with a strong 11% monthly increase to $1,119,452 for September 2023, which is a 5% year-over-year increase. Home prices in York Region, which includes Markham, Vaughan, and Richmond Hill, have decreased 1% month-over-month to $1,330,636[1].
Looking Forward
With the housing market firmly in buyer’s market territory, those looking to buy a home in Toronto might start seeing some deals on the horizon as the region’s sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) dips to a 14-year low. It’s expected that Toronto home prices will fall over the next few months[1].
The Toronto housing market forecast for the remainder of 2023 suggests a balanced outlook characterized by resilience, moderated price growth, and a continued focus on affordability. The market has shown its ability to adapt to changing economic conditions, which bodes well for both buyers and sellers[1].
According to Re/Max Canada’s housing market forecast for 2023, the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is projected to decrease by about 12 percent over the following year[1].
Toronto Housing Market Performance in the Last Year
The Toronto housing market has seen a year of resilience and adaptability, with a steady increase in home prices despite shifting into a buyer’s market for the first time in 14 years.
Housing Price Trends
The average home sold price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 3% year-over-year to $1,119,428 for September 2023[1]. By October 2023, this figure had risen to $1,125,928, marking a 3.4% increase year-over-year[2].
Different property types experienced varying price trends:
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Detached Homes: The average price increased 5.2% year-over-year to $1,440,786 in September 2023[1], and by October, it had risen to $1.45M, marking a 5.7% increase year-over-yea.
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Semi-Detached Homes: Prices increased 5% year-over-year to an average of $1,094,074 in September 2023[1], and by October, the average price had risen to $1.10M, marking a 2.2% increase year-over-year.
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Freehold Townhouses: Prices increased 5% year-over-year to an average of $1,043,076 in September 2023[1], and by October, the average price had risen to $1.04M, marking a 1.8% increase year-over-year.
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Condo Apartments: These were the only property type to see an annual decrease in home prices, falling 3% year-over-year to $707,065 in September 2023[1]. By October, the average price had decreased further to $709k, marking a 1.1% decrease year-over-year.
Market Conditions
Despite the increase in home prices, the GTA housing market plunged into a deep buyer’s market in September 2023, the first time since January 2009[1]. This was due to a surge of new listings and sluggish sales numbers[1]. However, home prices continued to increase, highlighting Toronto’s strong and resilient housing market.
Regional Comparison
The City of Toronto saw home prices surge with a strong 11% monthly increase to $1,119,452 for September 2023, which is a 5% year-over-year increase[1]. By October, the average home sold price had risen to $1,127,635, marking a 3% increase year-over-year.
In contrast, home prices in York Region, which includes Markham, Vaughan, and Richmond Hill, decreased 1% month-over-month to $1,330,636 in September 2023[1], and by October, they had decreased further by 3% month-over-month to $1,293,179.
Looking Forward
The Toronto housing market forecast for the remainder of 2023 suggests a balanced outlook characterized by resilience, moderated price growth, and a continued focus on affordability[1]. However, it’s expected that Toronto home prices will fall over the next few months. According to Re/Max Canada’s housing market forecast for 2023, the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is projected to decrease by about 12 percent over the following year.
In conclusion, the Toronto housing market has shown resilience and adaptability in the face of changing economic conditions. Despite shifting into a buyer’s market, home prices have continued to increase, demonstrating the strength of the market. However, the forecast suggests a potential decrease in home prices over the next year, indicating a possible shift in the market dynamics.
Conclusion
The Toronto housing market is a complex and dynamic entity, influenced by a variety of economic and policy factors. Despite being in a deep buyer’s market, home prices have continued to rise, demonstrating the market’s resilience. However, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio at a 14-year low, potential buyers may start to see some deals in the coming months. As we move into 2024, the market is expected to continue its trend of moderated price growth and a focus on affordability.
Citations:
- https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/toronto-housing-market/
- https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-data-october-1.7028794
- https://trreb.ca/index.php/market-news/housing-market-charts
- https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market
- https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-s-housing-market-still-in-a-slump-crea-1.6646048
- https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/as-toronto-housing-market-cools-inventory-builds-october-2023-market-update