Commercial real estate investors are battling with high-interest rates and economic uncertainty globally, and that’s reflected in Canada’s largest market. Industrial remained the bright spot with $3.39 billion in dollar volume, a 36% increase from Q2 2022, and the only segment to see growth. Availability in industrial units tightened to 1.3% from 2.3% a year earlier, putting upward pressure on rents and making the class more attractive to investors.
Tight lending practices from financial institutions in addition to a shortage of skilled labor, soaring construction and material costs, and price expectations between buyers and sellers further hampered market activity. Despite this slowdown, Altus Group’s most recent Investment Trends Survey identified Toronto as one of the top three preferred markets amongst investors, along with Vancouver and Ottawa.
The retail sector reported $2.6 billion in dollar volume transacted, an 8% decrease YoY. Given the slowing economy and rising cost of living, Canadians have focused their expenditure on necessities. Furthermore, the hybrid work model has allowed Canadians to work, shop, and play closer to home, and local neighborhood retailers have reaped the benefits of increased foot traffic.
The slower rate of activity in the GTA is not unique as a global picture of CRE investment activity reveals. Schroders Capital Global Real Estate Lens August 2023 highlights that investment activity remains very subdued with volumes in major markets around the level last seen during the Global Financial Crisis.
The report shows that occupier demand for office and logistics space has seen a slight slowdown, but high-quality space is still in demand, most notably in the industrial/logistics sector.
The industrial sector contributed to over one-third of the GTA’s annual investment volume and matched the total investment volume recorded in 2022. Moreover, investors have maintained a positive outlook with the anticipation of lower interest rates in the second half of 2024 and a market supported by strong underlying demographic and economic fundamentals.